Parma 3–3 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sampdoria

A. Bastoni 71'

J. Kucka 67' (pen)

M. Gazzola 2'

F. Quagliarella 61', 28' (pen)

G. Defrel 38'

5/5/2019

Serie A · Round 35Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Parma40%

×Draw26%

Sampdoria34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.29

Parma

1.43

Sampdoria

1.29

Parma creates 11% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

1.05

creates per match

1.11

1.46

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Parma

1.05

Sampdoria

1.11

allows per match

Parma

1.46

Sampdoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parma+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Parma or draw

66%

Parma or Sampdoria

74%

Draw or Sampdoria

60%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

19%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

76%

Parma 2+ goals

42%

Parma 3+ goals

17%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

72%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

37%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

54%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.81 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.05 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sampdoria attack 1.11 + Parma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Parma scores more

40%

level

26%

Sampdoria scores more

34%

Parma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Quagliarella

Sampdoria · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

M. Gazzola↳ Y. Gervinho

4'

Omar Colley

23'

Antonino Barillà

26'

Federico Dimarco

28'

F. QuagliarellaPenalty

38'

G. Defrel

46'

M. Sprocati← A. Barillà

57'

É. Barreto← M. Gabbiadini

59'

Juraj Kucka

61'

F. Quagliarella↳ D. Praet

65'

L. Siligardi← F. Ceravolo

67'

J. KuckaPenalty

71'

A. Bastoni

78'

G. Caprari← G. Defrel

80'

Édgar Barreto

87'

L. Štulac← M. Scozzarella

88'

88'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaSampdoria

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots18

2Corners2

14Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots18

6On Target9

3Off Target6

0Blocked3

4Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

362Total Passes657

276Accurate Passes571

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

5Offsides1