Parma 0–0 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Parma

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

9/2/2023

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Parma51%

×Draw26%

Reggiana23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Parma

1.50

Reggiana

0.91

Parma creates 65% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

1.47

creates per match

0.91

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Parma

1.47

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Parma

0.91

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parma+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Parma or draw

77%

Parma or Reggiana

74%

Draw or Reggiana

49%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

26%

Reggiana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

78%

Parma 2+ goals

44%

Parma 3+ goals

19%

Reggiana 1+ goals

60%

Reggiana 2+ goals

23%

Reggiana 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

69%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.47 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Parma defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Parma scores more

51%

level

26%

Reggiana scores more

23%

Parma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

E. Del Prato

Parma · D

7.9

Match Events

58'

N. Girma← A. Vergara

59'

V. Zagaritis← C. Ansaldi

59'

A. Partipilo← V. Mihăilă

59'

Muhamed Djamanca← S. Pettinari

64'

A. Čolak← A. Bonny

64'

T. Begić← A. Benedyczak

72'

F. Nardi← M. Portanova

72'

J. Antiste← E. Lanini

77'

Elvis Kabashi

79'

S. Sohm← Adrián Bernabé

80'

Nahuel Estévez

83'

P. Szymiński← E. Kabashi

90+2'

Enrico Del Prato

90+2'

Alessandro Bianco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaReggiana

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots8

6Corners2

15Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots8

4On Target1

11Off Target3

3Blocked4

8Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

512Total Passes346

440Accurate Passes263

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3