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Parma vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
J. Kurtič 1'
10/4/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 3Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Parma37%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.31
Hellas Verona
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Parma
1.52
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
64%
Parma or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
63%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
17%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
73%
Parma 2+ goals
38%
Parma 3+ goals
14%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
72%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
37%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
51%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Parma scores more
37%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
36%

Parma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
F. DimarcoHellas VeronaHellas Verona · M
8.5

Match Events

1'
J. Kurtič↳ Y. Karamoh
20'
Bruno Alves
45'
D. Lazović← M. Lovato
58'
E. Colley← M. Zaccagni
58'
E. Salcedo← A. Barák
63'
M. Darmian← V. Laurini
63'
R. Gagliolo← Hernani
63'
A. Cornelius← Y. Karamoh
65'
Federico Dimarco
74'
A. Grassi← J. Kurtič
86'
Ľ. Tupta← M. Çetin

Possession

39%Parma

Shots

11Parma

Pass accuracy

47%Parma

Statistics

ParmaHellas
Overview
39%Possession61%
11Total Shots8
7Corners6
11Fouls19
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target2
3Off Target2
4Blocked4
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
338Total Passes504
254Accurate Passes430
75%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls19
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Serie A: Parma 1–0 Hellas Verona

Parma beat Hellas Verona 1-0 in Serie A on October 4, 2020.

Goals: J. Kurtič (1').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.