Parma 0–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hellas Verona

Darko Lazović 10'

10/29/2019

Serie A · Round 10Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Parma37%

×Draw26%

Hellas Verona36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

Parma

1.31

Hellas Verona

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

0.98

creates per match

1.04

1.52

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Parma

0.98

Hellas Verona

1.04

allows per match

Parma

1.52

Hellas Verona

1.64

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Parma-0.02on par

Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw

64%

Parma or Hellas Verona

74%

Draw or Hellas Verona

63%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

17%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

73%

Parma 2+ goals

38%

Parma 3+ goals

14%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

72%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

37%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

51%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Parma scores more

37%

level

26%

Hellas Verona scores more

36%

Parma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Marco Silvestri

Hellas Verona · G

8.2

Match Events

10'

Darko Lazović

26'

Marash Kumbulla

36'

Valerio Verre

46'

Mattia Zaccagni← Eddie Salcedo

51'

Sofyan Amrabat

60'

Hernani← Antonino Barillà

62'

Matteo Pessina← Valerio Verre

72'

Miguel Veloso

76'

Mattia Sprocati← Giuseppe Pezzella

90'

Gervinho

90'

Mattia Zaccagni

90'

Andrea Danzi← Miguel Veloso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaHellas

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots8

12Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots8

5On Target2

9Off Target4

6Blocked2

12Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

428Total Passes410

331Accurate Passes319

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1