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Parma vs Genoa — Serie B 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
F. Vázquez 53' (pen)
A. Benedyczak 32'
2/5/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Parma39%
×Draw28%
Genoa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.21
Genoa
1.08

Parma creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Parma
1.47
Genoa
1.26

allows per match

Parma
0.91
Genoa
0.95

finishing

Parma+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Parma or draw
67%
Parma or Genoa
72%
Draw or Genoa
61%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
17%
Genoa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
70%
Parma 2+ goals
34%
Parma 3+ goals
12%
Genoa 1+ goals
66%
Genoa 2+ goals
29%
Genoa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
54%
Genoa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.47 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Genoa attack 1.26 + Parma defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Parma scores more
39%
level
28%
Genoa scores more
33%

Parma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. BaloghParmaParma · D
8.0

Match Events

15'
S. Sohm← V. Mihăilă
25'
Stefano Sabelli
32'
Adrian Benedyczak
32'
A. Benedyczak↳ F. Vázquez
46'
F. Jagiełło← A. Matturro
50'
Luca ZanimacchiaPenalty confirmed
53'
F. VázquezPenalty
61'
G. Puşcaş← M. Coda
61'
G. Yalçın← M. Aramu
64'
A. Bonny← A. Benedyczak
76'
V. Zagaritis← C. Ansaldi
76'
W. Coulibaly← E. Del Prato
78'
E. Salcedo← A. Guðmundsson
78'
S. Sturaro← K. Strootman
82'
Eddie Salcedo
89'
Vassilis Zagaritis
90+5'
Stefano Sturaro

Possession

37%Parma

Shots

12Parma

Pass accuracy

48%Parma

Statistics

ParmaGenoa
Overview
37%Possession63%
12Total Shots5
6Corners5
15Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots5
7On Target0
3Off Target5
2Blocked0
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box0
Passing
37%Possession63%
314Total Passes528
233Accurate Passes417
74%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Parma 2 – 0 Genoa

Parma beat Genoa 2-0 in Serie B on February 5, 2023.

Goals: A. Benedyczak (32'), F. Vázquez (53' pen).

Genoa controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.