Parma 0–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

11/4/2018

Serie A · Round 11Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Parma39%

×Draw24%

Frosinone36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.47

Parma

1.54

Frosinone

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

1.10

creates per match

1.48

1.46

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Parma

1.10

Frosinone

1.48

allows per match

Parma

1.46

Frosinone

1.99

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Parma-0.13scores less

Frosinone-0.68scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Parma or draw

64%

Parma or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

61%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

19%

Frosinone wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

79%

Parma 2+ goals

45%

Parma 3+ goals

20%

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

52%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.10 + Frosinone defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.54

Frosinone attack 1.48 + Parma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Parma scores more

39%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

36%

Parma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Gobbi

Parma · D

7.4

Match Events

32'

38'

61'

69'

69'

70'

73'

A. Bastoni← F. Ceravolo

78'

Mirko Gori

79'

R. Inglese← L. Siligardi

80'

D. Soddimo← J. Campbell

85'

A. Grassi← L. Rigoni

86'

R. Vloet← C. Ciano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaFrosinone

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots13

3Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target1

8Off Target10

2Blocked2

2Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

383Total Passes488

293Accurate Passes412

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1