Frosinone 3–4 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Parma

L. Moro 71'

S. Mulattieri 48'

G. Caso 25'

F. Vázquez 73', 6'

L. Zanimacchia 35'

C. Ansaldi 21'

2/24/2023

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Frosinone41%

×Draw27%

Parma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Frosinone

1.35

Parma

1.17

Frosinone creates 15% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 58 away

1.55

creates per match

1.36

0.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Parma

1.36

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Parma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Parma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

68%

Frosinone or Parma

73%

Draw or Parma

59%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

19%

Parma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

74%

Frosinone 2+ goals

39%

Frosinone 3+ goals

15%

Parma 1+ goals

69%

Parma 2+ goals

33%

Parma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

56%

Parma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 116 matches

Parma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Parma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Parma attack 1.36 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frosinone scores more

41%

level

27%

Parma scores more

32%

Frosinone at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

L. Mazzitelli

Frosinone · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

F. Vázquez↳ C. Ansaldi

21'

C. Ansaldi↳ D. Man

25'

G. Caso↳ S. Kalaj

35'

L. Zanimacchia↳ D. Man

48'

S. Mulattieri

55'

Nahuel Estévez

55'

Nahuel EstévezCard upgrade

59'

D. Camara← D. Man

61'

S. Bidaoui← M. Rohdén

61'

J. Báez← R. Insigne

62'

L. Moro← G. Caso

64'

Matteo Cotali

66'

Daniel Boloca

71'

L. Moro↳ L. Mazzitelli

73'

F. Vázquez↳ Adrián Bernabé

74'

R. Inglese← Adrián Bernabé

78'

G. Borrelli← S. Mulattieri

78'

G. Frabotta← M. Cotali

79'

V. Zagaritis← C. Ansaldi

79'

A. Hainaut← L. Zanimacchia

86'

Drissa Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneParma

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots6

4Corners1

10Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots6

6On Target5

8Off Target1

5Blocked0

11Inside Box2

8Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

567Total Passes391

464Accurate Passes285

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards2

2Offsides0