Parma 1–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

D. Man 22'

C. Biraghi 75'

8/17/2024

Serie A · Round 1Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma34%

×Draw27%

Fiorentina39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Parma

1.21

Fiorentina

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

0.98

creates per match

1.11

1.52

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Parma

0.98

Fiorentina

1.11

allows per match

Parma

1.52

Fiorentina

1.44

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Parma-0.02on par

Fiorentina+0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Parma or draw

61%

Parma or Fiorentina

73%

Draw or Fiorentina

66%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

14%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

70%

Parma 2+ goals

34%

Parma 3+ goals

12%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

73%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

38%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

47%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Parma scores more

34%

level

27%

Fiorentina scores more

39%

Fiorentina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

D. Man

Parma · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

D. Man↳ A. Bonny

35'

Marin Pongračić

36'

Nahuel Estévez

49'

Botond Balogh

60'

F. Parisi← L. Martínez Quarta

60'

J. Ikoné← A. Colpani

65'

D. Camara← V. Mihăilă

65'

A. Hainaut← A. Bonny

65'

P. Almqvist← D. Man

73'

A. Bianco← R. Mandragora

73'

M. Kayode← P. Comuzzo

75'

C. Biraghi

76'

M. Cancellieri← S. Sohm

79'

R. Sottil← C. Kouamé

80'

W. Cyprien← Adrián Bernabé

83'

Marin Pongračić

83'

Marin Pongračić

85'

Alessandro Circati

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaFiorentina

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots15

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.75

4Corners9

15Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots15

6On Target7

4Off Target3

4Blocked5

12Inside Box6

2Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

265Total Passes416

199Accurate Passes353

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

0.57Goals Prevented0.57

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5