Parma 1–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Parma

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

AC Milan

R. Gagliolo 66'

Rafael Leão 90+4'

F. Kessié 44'

A. Rebić 8'

4/10/2021

Serie A · Round 30Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma26%

×Draw26%

AC Milan48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParmaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.54

Parma

1.07

AC Milan

1.54

AC Milan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

0.98

creates per match

1.57

1.52

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Parma

0.98

AC Milan

1.57

allows per match

Parma

1.52

AC Milan

1.17

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Parma-0.02on par

AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw

52%

Parma or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

74%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+

10%

AC Milan wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals

66%

Parma 2+ goals

29%

Parma 3+ goals

9%

AC Milan 1+ goals

79%

AC Milan 2+ goals

45%

AC Milan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)

35%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Parma scores more

26%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

48%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Gagliolo

Parma · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

A. Rebić↳ Z. Ibrahimović

10'

24'

37'

38'

44'

F. Kessié↳ T. Hernández

46'

A. Cornelius← Y. Gervinho

60'

Zlatan Ibrahimović

61'

A. Grassi← Hernani

63'

Juraj Kucka

66'

R. Gagliolo↳ G. Pellè

72'

Diogo Dalot← A. Saelemaekers

72'

S. Meïté← I. Bennacer

74'

M. Busi← G. Pezzella

77'

R. Krunić← H. Çalhanoğlu

78'

Theo Hernández

78'

M. Gabbia← P. Kalulu

80'

Franck Kessié

84'

Rafael Leão← A. Rebić

85'

C. Traorè← A. Conti

90'

Soualiho Meïté

90+4'

Rafael Leão↳ Diogo Dalot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParmaAC

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

7Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target5

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

555Total Passes404

487Accurate Passes340

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie A: Parma 1–3 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Parma 3-1 in Serie A on April 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Rebić (8'), F. Kessié (44'), R. Gagliolo (66'), Rafael Leão (90+4').

Parma controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.

Parma vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Parma 1–3 AC Milan