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Parma vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
Theo Hernández 88'
12/1/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma28%
×Draw26%
AC Milan47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.10
AC Milan
1.51

AC Milan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Parma
1.52
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
53%
Parma or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
72%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
11%
AC Milan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
67%
Parma 2+ goals
30%
Parma 3+ goals
10%
AC Milan 1+ goals
78%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
37%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Parma scores more
28%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
47%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Hakan ÇalhanoğluAC MilanAC Milan · F
8.3

Match Events

58'
Ismaël Bennacer
61'
Simone Iacoponi
63'
Alberto Grassi← Antonino Barillà
64'
Rafael Leão← Krzysztof Piątek
71'
Andreas Cornelius← Gastón Brugman
71'
Rade Krunić← Franck Kessié
87'
Mattia Sprocati← Gervinho
88'
Theo Hernández
89'
Theo Hernández
90'
Gianluigi Donnarumma

Possession

33%Parma

Shots

8Parma

Pass accuracy

46%Parma

Statistics

ParmaAC
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots27
1Corners7
11Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots27
0On Target8
6Off Target12
2Blocked7
5Inside Box17
3Outside Box10
Passing
33%Possession67%
311Total Passes603
238Accurate Passes545
77%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Parma vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Parma 1-0 in Serie A on December 1, 2019.

Goals: Theo Hernández (88').

AC Milan controlled possession (67%) and registered 27 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.