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Parma vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
Bruno Alves 87'
Samu Castillejo 69'
4/20/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 33Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma28%
×Draw26%
AC Milan47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.10
AC Milan
1.51

AC Milan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Parma
1.52
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
53%
Parma or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
72%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
11%
AC Milan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
67%
Parma 2+ goals
30%
Parma 3+ goals
10%
AC Milan 1+ goals
78%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
37%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Parma scores more
28%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
47%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
SusoAC MilanAC Milan · F
7.9

Match Events

58'
P. Cutrone← T. Bakayoko
66'
Samu Castillejo← A. Conti
69'
Samu Castillejo↳ Suso
72'
L. Siligardi← F. Dimarco
75'
L. Biglia← H. Çalhanoğlu
76'
M. Sprocati← F. Ceravolo
82'
Lucas Biglia
87'
Bruno Alves
90+1'
L. Štulac← M. Scozzarella

Possession

41%Parma

Shots

12Parma

Pass accuracy

47%Parma

Statistics

ParmaAC
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots15
8Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots15
1On Target3
9Off Target6
2Blocked6
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
326Total Passes484
258Accurate Passes430
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides4

Serie A: Parma 1–1 AC Milan

Parma and AC Milan drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 20, 2019.

Goals: Samu Castillejo (69'), Bruno Alves (87').

AC Milan controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ennio Tardini in Parma.