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Parma U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Parma U20
Parma U20
Preview
09:00
Monza U20
Monza U20
4/10/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 32
50%
Parma U20
model favours
50%24%26%

Parma U20 sit 2, Monza U20 15 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Parma U2050%
×Draw24%
Monza U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U20
1.69
Monza U20
1.16

Parma U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 38 away

creates per match

Parma U20
1.70
Monza U20
1.26

allows per match

Parma U20
1.05
Monza U20
1.68

finishing

Parma U20+0.00on par
Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U20 ↓

Monza U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Parma U20 or draw
74%
Parma U20 or Monza U20
76%
Draw or Monza U20
50%

Winning margin

Parma U20 wins by 2+
27%
Monza U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Parma U20 1+ goals
82%
Parma U20 2+ goals
50%
Parma U20 3+ goals
24%
Monza U20 1+ goals
69%
Monza U20 2+ goals
32%
Monza U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Parma U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Monza U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U20 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U20 attack 1.70 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Parma U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Parma U20 scores more
50%
level
24%
Monza U20 scores more
26%

Parma U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWDWW
U20
DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Parma U20 host Monza U20

April 10, 2027: Parma U20 take on Monza U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.