Monza U20 0–0 Parma U20: Result & Stats

Monza U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Parma U20

5/16/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 38Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Monza U2032%

×Draw26%

Parma U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U20Expected goals in this matchParma U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.40

Monza U20

1.19

Parma U20

1.40

Parma U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

1.39

creates per match

1.40

1.39

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Monza U20

1.39

Parma U20

1.40

allows per match

Monza U20

1.39

Parma U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par

Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Parma U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw

58%

Monza U20 or Parma U20

74%

Draw or Parma U20

68%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+

13%

Parma U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals

70%

Monza U20 2+ goals

33%

Monza U20 3+ goals

12%

Parma U20 1+ goals

75%

Parma U20 2+ goals

41%

Parma U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Parma U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza U20 scores more

32%

level

26%

Parma U20 scores more

42%

Parma U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff