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Parma U20 vs Genoa U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Parma U20
Parma U20
Preview
09:00
Genoa U20
Genoa U20
9/12/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4
46%
Parma U20
model favours
46%25%29%

Parma U20 win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Parma U2046%
×Draw25%
Genoa U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U20
1.57
Genoa U20
1.19

Parma U20 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 38 away

creates per match

Parma U20
1.70
Genoa U20
1.32

allows per match

Parma U20
1.05
Genoa U20
1.45

finishing

Parma U20+0.00on par
Genoa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U20 ↓

Genoa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Parma U20 or draw
71%
Parma U20 or Genoa U20
75%
Draw or Genoa U20
54%

Winning margin

Parma U20 wins by 2+
23%
Genoa U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Parma U20 1+ goals
79%
Parma U20 2+ goals
46%
Parma U20 3+ goals
21%
Genoa U20 1+ goals
70%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
33%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Parma U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U20 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Genoa U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U20 attack 1.70 + Genoa U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Genoa U20 attack 1.32 + Parma U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Parma U20 scores more
46%
level
25%
Genoa U20 scores more
29%

Parma U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWDWW
U20
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parma U20 face Genoa U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Parma U20 hosting Genoa U20. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.