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Genoa U20 vs Parma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U20
Genoa U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Parma U20
Parma U20
1/16/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20LaCantera Stadium Barabino & Partners

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Genoa U2033%
×Draw25%
Parma U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U20
1.29
Parma U20
1.48

Parma U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Genoa U20
1.58
Parma U20
1.40

allows per match

Genoa U20
1.55
Parma U20
1.00

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par
Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Parma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw
58%
Genoa U20 or Parma U20
75%
Draw or Parma U20
67%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+
14%
Parma U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals
72%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
37%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
14%
Parma U20 1+ goals
77%
Parma U20 2+ goals
43%
Parma U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Parma U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Genoa U20 scores more
33%
level
25%
Parma U20 scores more
42%

Parma U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genoa U20 vs Parma U20

Genoa U20 beat Parma U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 16, 2026.

The match was played at LaCantera Stadium Barabino & Partners in Genova.