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Parma U19 vs Renate U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Parma U19
Parma U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renate U19
Renate U19
12/9/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 11Centro Sportivo Parma FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Parma U1958%
×Draw22%
Renate U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U19
1.90
Renate U19
1.02

Parma U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 45 away

creates per match

Parma U19
2.35
Renate U19
1.07

allows per match

Parma U19
0.96
Renate U19
1.44

finishing

Parma U19+0.00on par
Renate U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U19 ↓

Renate U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Parma U19 or draw
80%
Parma U19 or Renate U19
78%
Draw or Renate U19
42%

Winning margin

Parma U19 wins by 2+
34%
Renate U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Parma U19 1+ goals
85%
Parma U19 2+ goals
56%
Parma U19 3+ goals
29%
Renate U19 1+ goals
64%
Renate U19 2+ goals
27%
Renate U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Parma U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Renate U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U19 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.96 · 71 matches

Renate U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U19 attack 2.35 + Renate U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Renate U19 attack 1.07 + Parma U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Parma U19 scores more
58%
level
22%
Renate U19 scores more
20%

Parma U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parma U19 vs Renate U19

Parma U19 beat Renate U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Parma FC in Collecchio.