Parma U19 4–0 Padova U19: Result & Stats

Parma U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Padova U19

2/17/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Centro Sportivo Parma FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Parma U1962%

×Draw21%

Padova U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parma U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.97

Parma U19

2.04

Padova U19

0.97

Parma U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 61 away

2.35

creates per match

0.98

0.96

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Parma U19

2.35

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

Parma U19

0.96

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parma U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Parma U19 or draw

83%

Parma U19 or Padova U19

79%

Draw or Padova U19

38%

Winning margin

Parma U19 wins by 2+

38%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Parma U19 1+ goals

87%

Parma U19 2+ goals

60%

Parma U19 3+ goals

33%

Padova U19 1+ goals

62%

Padova U19 2+ goals

25%

Padova U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Parma U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U19 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.96 · 71 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U19 attack 2.35 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.04

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Parma U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Parma U19 scores more

62%

level

21%

Padova U19 scores more

17%

Parma U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff