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Parma U19 vs Modena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Parma U19
Parma U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Modena U19
Modena U19
2/1/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 17Centro Sportivo Parma FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Parma U1954%
×Draw22%
Modena U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U19
1.95
Modena U19
1.25

Parma U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 31 away

creates per match

Parma U19
2.35
Modena U19
1.55

allows per match

Parma U19
0.96
Modena U19
1.55

finishing

Parma U19+0.00on par
Modena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U19 ↓

Modena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Parma U19 or draw
76%
Parma U19 or Modena U19
78%
Draw or Modena U19
46%

Winning margin

Parma U19 wins by 2+
31%
Modena U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Parma U19 1+ goals
86%
Parma U19 2+ goals
58%
Parma U19 3+ goals
31%
Modena U19 1+ goals
71%
Modena U19 2+ goals
36%
Modena U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Parma U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Modena U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U19 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.96 · 71 matches

Modena U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U19 attack 2.35 + Modena U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.95

Modena U19 attack 1.55 + Parma U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Parma U19 scores more
54%
level
22%
Modena U19 scores more
24%

Parma U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parma U19 vs Modena U19

Parma U19 and Modena U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Parma FC in Collecchio.