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Parma U19 vs Como U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Parma U19
Parma U19
FT
1 – 2
Como U19
Como U19
12/21/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 13Centro Sportivo Parma FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Parma U1945%
×Draw23%
Como U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma U19
1.84
Como U19
1.52

Parma U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

creates per match

Parma U19
2.35
Como U19
2.08

allows per match

Parma U19
0.96
Como U19
1.33

finishing

Parma U19+0.00on par
Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma U19 ↓

Como U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Parma U19 or draw
68%
Parma U19 or Como U19
77%
Draw or Como U19
55%

Winning margin

Parma U19 wins by 2+
25%
Como U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Parma U19 1+ goals
84%
Parma U19 2+ goals
55%
Parma U19 3+ goals
28%
Como U19 1+ goals
78%
Como U19 2+ goals
45%
Como U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Parma U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Como U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma U19 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.96 · 71 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma U19 attack 2.35 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Parma U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Parma U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Como U19 scores more
32%

Parma U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Parma U19 1–2 Como U19

Como U19 beat Parma U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Parma FC in Collecchio.