Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxin Alborz vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
7/12/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Oxin Alborz53%
×Draw28%
Sepidrood Rasht20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.39
Sepidrood Rasht
0.73

Oxin Alborz creates 90% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.19
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
80%
Oxin Alborz or Sepidrood Rasht
72%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
47%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
26%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
75%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
40%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
16%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
52%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
73%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.19 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
53%
level
28%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
20%

Oxin Alborz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxin Alborz vs Sepidrood Rasht

Oxin Alborz beat Sepidrood Rasht 1-0 in Azadegan League on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.