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Parks vs Smiltene — Cup 2020

Parks
Parks
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
Smiltene
Smilteneadvanced
E. Silins 18'
V. Gaismins 82', 77', 57'
S. Cipruss 59'
R. Lakis 48'
5/30/2026CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Parks6%
×Draw9%
Smiltene86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parks
1.16
Smiltene
4.27

Smiltene creates 268% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Parks
0.75
Smiltene
3.29

allows per match

Parks
5.25
Smiltene
1.57

finishing

Parks+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parks ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Parks or draw
14%
Parks or Smiltene
91%
Draw or Smiltene
94%

Winning margin

Parks wins by 2+
2%
Smiltene wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Parks 1+ goals
69%
Parks 2+ goals
32%
Parks 3+ goals
11%
Smiltene 1+ goals
98%
Smiltene 2+ goals
91%
Smiltene 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Parks (draw refunded)
6%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parks at home — creates 0.75, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Smiltene away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parks attack 0.75 + Smiltene defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Smiltene attack 3.29 + Parks defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 4.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Parks scores more
6%
level
9%
Smiltene scores more
86%

Smiltene at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
E. Silins
48'
R. Lakis
57'
V. Gaismins
59'
S. Cipruss
77'
V. Gaismins
82'
V. Gaismins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Parks 1–5 Smiltene

Smiltene beat Parks 5-1 in Cup on May 30, 2026.

Goals: E. Silins (18'), R. Lakis (48'), V. Gaismins (57', 77', 82'), S. Cipruss (59').