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Parks vs Rīga United — Cup 2020

Parks
Parks
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rīga United
Rīga United
5/29/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundRTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Parks23%
×Draw17%
Rīga United60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parks
1.88
Rīga United
3.02

Rīga United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Parks
0.75
Rīga United
0.80

allows per match

Parks
5.25
Rīga United
3.00

finishing

Parks+0.00on par
Rīga United+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parks ↓

Rīga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Parks or draw
40%
Parks or Rīga United
83%
Draw or Rīga United
77%

Winning margin

Parks wins by 2+
11%
Rīga United wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Parks 1+ goals
85%
Parks 2+ goals
56%
Parks 3+ goals
29%
Rīga United 1+ goals
95%
Rīga United 2+ goals
80%
Rīga United 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Parks (draw refunded)
28%
Rīga United (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parks at home — creates 0.75, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Rīga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parks attack 0.75 + Rīga United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Rīga United attack 0.80 + Parks defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Parks scores more
23%
level
17%
Rīga United scores more
60%

Rīga United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rīga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Parks 2–0 Rīga United

Parks beat Rīga United 2-0 in Cup on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.