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Parks vs FS Jelgava — Cup 2020

Parks
Parks
FT
0 – 11
HT: 0 – 7
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
6/26/2022CupCup · Play-off RoundRTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Parks6%
×Draw8%
FS Jelgava86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parks
1.50
FS Jelgava
5.13

FS Jelgava creates 242% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Parks
0.75
FS Jelgava
5.00

allows per match

Parks
5.25
FS Jelgava
2.25

finishing

Parks+0.00on par
FS Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parks ↓

FS Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 55% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

Parks or draw
14%
Parks or FS Jelgava
92%
Draw or FS Jelgava
94%

Winning margin

Parks wins by 2+
2%
FS Jelgava wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Parks 1+ goals
78%
Parks 2+ goals
44%
Parks 3+ goals
19%
FS Jelgava 1+ goals
99%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
95%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
85%

Draw no bet

Parks (draw refunded)
7%
FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parks at home — creates 0.75, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

FS Jelgava away — creates 5.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parks attack 0.75 + FS Jelgava defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

FS Jelgava attack 5.00 + Parks defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 5.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Parks scores more
6%
level
8%
FS Jelgava scores more
86%

FS Jelgava at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "FS Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Parks 0–11 FS Jelgava

FS Jelgava beat Parks 11-0 in Cup on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.