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Park City Red Wolves vs Oly Town — USL League Two 2018

Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Oly Town
Oly Townadvanced
Unknown 69'
G. De La Luz 46'
C. Miller 44'
H. Famuditimi 38'
7/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsInterbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Park City Red Wolves56%
×Draw20%
Oly Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Park City Red Wolves
2.24
Oly Town
1.39

Park City Red Wolves creates 61% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.94
Oly Town
1.49

allows per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.28
Oly Town
2.54

finishing

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par
Oly Town+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Park City Red Wolves ↓

Oly Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Park City Red Wolves or draw
77%
Park City Red Wolves or Oly Town
80%
Draw or Oly Town
44%

Winning margin

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
35%
Oly Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
89%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
65%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
38%
Oly Town 1+ goals
75%
Oly Town 2+ goals
40%
Oly Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
71%
Oly Town (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Park City Red Wolves at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Oly Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.94 + Oly Town defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.24

Oly Town attack 1.49 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Park City Red Wolves scores more
56%
level
20%
Oly Town scores more
23%

Park City Red Wolves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
H. Famuditimi
44'
C. Miller
46'
G. De La Luz
69'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Park City Red Wolves 0–4 Oly Town

Oly Town beat Park City Red Wolves 4-0 in USL League Two on July 21, 2023.

Goals: H. Famuditimi (38'), C. Miller (44'), G. De La Luz (46'), ? (69').

The match was played at Interbay Stadium in Seattle, Washington.