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Park City Red Wolves vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
FT
3 – 1
Ogden City
Ogden City
7/4/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 44Quinns Sportex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Park City Red Wolves47%
×Draw23%
Ogden City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Park City Red Wolves
1.83
Ogden City
1.44

Park City Red Wolves creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.94
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.28
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Park City Red Wolves ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Park City Red Wolves or draw
70%
Park City Red Wolves or Ogden City
77%
Draw or Ogden City
53%

Winning margin

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
26%
Ogden City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
84%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
54%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
28%
Ogden City 1+ goals
76%
Ogden City 2+ goals
42%
Ogden City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
61%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Park City Red Wolves at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.94 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Park City Red Wolves scores more
47%
level
23%
Ogden City scores more
30%

Park City Red Wolves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Park City Red Wolves 3–1 Ogden City

Park City Red Wolves beat Ogden City 3-1 in USL League Two on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Quinns Sportex in Park City, Utah.