Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ogden City vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Ogden City
Ogden City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
5/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 18Regional Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ogden City36%
×Draw22%
Park City Red Wolves42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogden City
1.73
Park City Red Wolves
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ogden City
1.88
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Ogden City
1.92
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw
58%
Ogden City or Park City Red Wolves
78%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
64%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+
18%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals
82%
Ogden City 2+ goals
52%
Ogden City 3+ goals
25%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
85%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
56%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)
46%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ogden City scores more
36%
level
22%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
42%

Park City Red Wolves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ogden City vs Park City Red Wolves

Park City Red Wolves beat Ogden City 4-2 in USL League Two on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Regional Athletic Complex in Salt Lake City, Utah.