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Park City Red Wolves vs Colorado ISA — USL League Two 2018

Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
6/2/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 5Judge Memorial Catholic High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Park City Red Wolves70%
×Draw17%
Colorado ISA14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Park City Red Wolves
2.61
Colorado ISA
1.07

Park City Red Wolves creates 144% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 29 away

creates per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.94
Colorado ISA
0.86

allows per match

Park City Red Wolves
1.28
Colorado ISA
3.28

finishing

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par
Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Park City Red Wolves ↓

Colorado ISA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Park City Red Wolves or draw
86%
Park City Red Wolves or Colorado ISA
83%
Draw or Colorado ISA
30%

Winning margin

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
48%
Colorado ISA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
93%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
73%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
47%
Colorado ISA 1+ goals
66%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
29%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
84%
Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Park City Red Wolves at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Colorado ISA away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.94 + Colorado ISA defence 3.28 → ÷2 → 2.61

Colorado ISA attack 0.86 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Park City Red Wolves scores more
70%
level
17%
Colorado ISA scores more
14%

Park City Red Wolves at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Park City Red Wolves vs Colorado ISA

Park City Red Wolves and Colorado ISA drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Judge Memorial Catholic High School in Salt Lake City, Utah.