Paris Saint Germain W 5–0 Zhytlobud-1 W

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Zhytlobud-1 W

10/13/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 2Stade Jean Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W60%

×Draw20%

Zhytlobud-1 W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchZhytlobud-1 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.16

Paris Saint Germain W

2.16

Zhytlobud-1 W

1.16

Paris Saint Germain W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

2.12

creates per match

1.40

0.92

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

2.12

Zhytlobud-1 W

1.40

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.92

Zhytlobud-1 W

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Zhytlobud-1 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Zhytlobud-1 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

80%

Paris Saint Germain W or Zhytlobud-1 W

80%

Draw or Zhytlobud-1 W

40%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

37%

Zhytlobud-1 W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

88%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

63%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

36%

Zhytlobud-1 W 1+ goals

69%

Zhytlobud-1 W 2+ goals

32%

Zhytlobud-1 W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

75%

Zhytlobud-1 W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Zhytlobud-1 W away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.12 + Zhytlobud-1 W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.16

Zhytlobud-1 W attack 1.40 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

60%

level

20%

Zhytlobud-1 W scores more

20%

Paris Saint Germain W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff