Paris Saint Germain W 4–0 Real Madrid W

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Madrid W

11/9/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 3Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W52%

×Draw23%

Real Madrid W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.24

Paris Saint Germain W

1.88

Real Madrid W

1.24

Paris Saint Germain W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

2.12

creates per match

1.56

0.92

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

2.12

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.92

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

75%

Paris Saint Germain W or Real Madrid W

77%

Draw or Real Madrid W

48%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

30%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

85%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

56%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

29%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

71%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

35%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

67%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.12 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.88

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

52%

level

23%

Real Madrid W scores more

25%

Paris Saint Germain W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff