Paris Saint Germain W 3–0 Paris FC W

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paris FC W

K. Albert 90+1'

S. Karchaoui 55'

R. Leuchter 2'

5/11/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Championship - Semi-finalsParc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W59%

×Draw20%

Paris FC W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.18

Paris Saint Germain W

2.15

Paris FC W

1.18

Paris Saint Germain W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

3.17

creates per match

1.94

0.42

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

3.17

Paris FC W

1.94

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.42

Paris FC W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

80%

Paris Saint Germain W or Paris FC W

80%

Draw or Paris FC W

41%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

37%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

88%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

63%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

36%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

69%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

33%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

74%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.42 · 84 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.17 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.15

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

59%

level

20%

Paris FC W scores more

20%

Paris Saint Germain W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

R. Leuchter

55'

S. Karchaoui↳ J. Le Guilly

58'

J. Echegini← O. Hurtré

60'

T. Greboval← C. Ould Hocine

60'

M. Le Mouël← D. Corboz

70'

C. Dunn← J. Le Guilly

70'

M. Kanjinga← G. Geyoro

72'

T. Sissoko← D. Davis

72'

K. Roche Dufour← M. Garbino

81'

L. Fazer← J. Groenen

90+1'

K. Albert↳ R. Leuchter

Paris

16

Nnadozie

2

▼

Hocine

29

▼

18

3

17

21

▼

Garbino

8

▼

4

10

22

27

29

4

7

⚽

Karchaoui

5

Almeida

28

A

▼

Guilly

14

▼

Groenen

8

▼

Geyoro

10

⚽

Albert

17

⚽A

Leuchter

22

▼

Hurtré

Manager: Paulo César

58'▲J. Echegini←▼O. Hurtré

70'▲C. Dunn←▼J. Le Guilly

70'▲M. Kanjinga←▼G. Geyoro

81'▲L. Fazer←▼J. Groenen

Paris Saint Germain W substitutes

6Echegini3Dunn30Kanjinga95Fazer9Katoto1Kiedrzynek19Gaetino

Manager: S. Soubeyrand

60'▲T. Greboval←▼C. Ould Hocine

60'▲M. Le Mouël←▼D. Corboz

72'▲T. Sissoko←▼D. Davis

72'▲K. Roche Dufour←▼M. Garbino

Paris FC W substitutes

19Greboval15Mouël23Sissoko31Dufour5Hunter1Marques33Germinal

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Paris FC W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Paris FC W 3-0 in Feminine Division 1 on May 11, 2025.

Goals: R. Leuchter (2'), S. Karchaoui (55'), K. Albert (90+1').

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.

Paris Saint Germain W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Paris FC W