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Paris Saint Germain W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
A. Ebayilin 71'
K. Bussy 30'
4/24/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W59%
×Draw20%
Paris FC W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
2.15
Paris FC W
1.17

Paris Saint Germain W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 87 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.15
Paris FC W
1.93

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.41
Paris FC W
1.14

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
80%
Paris Saint Germain W or Paris FC W
80%
Draw or Paris FC W
41%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
37%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
88%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
63%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
36%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
69%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
33%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
75%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.41 · 86 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.15 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.15

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
59%
level
20%
Paris FC W scores more
20%

Paris Saint Germain W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
O. SzperkowskaParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · G
8.5

Match Events

30'
K. Bussy↳ L. Ribadeira
46'
A. Abdourahim← L. Martens
46'
N. Traoré← A. Vangsgaard
46'
C. Matéo← K. Dufour
46'
A. Abdullina← T. Sissoko
49'
Naolia Traoré
55'
L. Fleury← J. Dufour
55'
M. N'Dongala← K. Bussy
56'
Kaja Korošec
63'
L. Fazer← M. Folquet
67'
Auryane Abdourahim
69'
Julie Soyer
70'
G. Thiney← D. Corboz
71'
A. Ebayilin
75'
Alsu Abdullina
88'
A. Joseph← M. Traoré
88'
T. Samoura← T. Elimbi Gilbert
89'
Auryane Abdourahim
89'
Auryane Abdourahim
90+2'
Anaïs Ebayilin

Possession

56%Paris

Shots

5Paris

Pass accuracy

51%Paris

Statistics

ParisParis
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots18
2Corners7
11Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots18
2On Target9
1Off Target7
2Blocked2
4Inside Box12
1Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
510Total Passes397
430Accurate Passes321
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
8Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls7
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Feminine Division 1: Paris Saint Germain W 1–1 Paris FC W

Paris Saint Germain W and Paris FC W drew 1-1 in Feminine Division 1 on April 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Bussy (30'), A. Ebayilin (71').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 18.

The match was played at Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5 in Poissy.