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Paris Saint Germain W vs Metz W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Metz W
Metz W
12/16/2018Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 14Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W86%
×Draw10%
Metz W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
3.21
Metz W
0.63

Paris Saint Germain W creates 410% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 19 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.17
Metz W
0.84

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.42
Metz W
3.26

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Metz W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Metz W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
96%
Paris Saint Germain W or Metz W
90%
Draw or Metz W
14%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
68%
Metz W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
96%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
82%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
60%
Metz W 1+ goals
47%
Metz W 2+ goals
13%
Metz W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
95%
Metz W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.42 · 84 matches

Metz W away — creates 0.84, concedes 3.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.17 + Metz W defence 3.26 → ÷2 → 3.21

Metz W attack 0.84 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
86%
level
10%
Metz W scores more
4%

Paris Saint Germain W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Metz W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Metz W 7-1 in Feminine Division 1 on December 16, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Jean Bouin (Paris).