Paris Saint Germain W 0–1 Lyon W: Result & Stats

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lyon W

T. Chawinga 23'

2/1/2026

Feminine Division 1 · Round 14Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W36%

×Draw21%

Lyon W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.98

Paris Saint Germain W

1.83

Lyon W

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

3.17

creates per match

3.55

0.42

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

3.17

Lyon W

3.55

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.42

Lyon W

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

58%

Paris Saint Germain W or Lyon W

79%

Draw or Lyon W

64%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

19%

Lyon W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

84%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

54%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

28%

Lyon W 1+ goals

86%

Lyon W 2+ goals

59%

Lyon W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

46%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.42 · 84 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.17 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

36%

level

21%

Lyon W scores more

42%

Lyon W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Bacha

Lyon W · D

8.0

Match Events

23'

T. Chawinga↳ D. M. Dumornay

36'

45'

46'

49'

50'

60'

65'

A. Lawrence← Tarciane

65'

A. Hegerberg← M. Katoto

73'

L. Heaps← D. M. Dumornay

73'

J. Brand← K. Diani

74'

R. Ajibade← J. Groenen

81'

Yaya← A. Ebayilin

81'

P. Dudek← Isabela

84'

V. Becho← T. Chawinga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisLyon

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots11

4Corners4

24Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target5

3Off Target5

2Blocked1

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

316Total Passes382

238Accurate Passes298

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Lyon W

Lyon W beat Paris Saint Germain W 1-0 in Feminine Division 1 on February 1, 2026.

Goals: T. Chawinga (23').

Lyon W controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.

Paris Saint Germain W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Lyon W