Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Arles: Result & Stats

Paris Saint Germain

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arles

Nenê 56', 49'

M. Sakho 29'

G. Hoarau 18'

9/11/2010

Ligue 1 · Round 5Parc des Princes (Paris)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Paris Saint Germain78%

×Draw15%

Arles7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint GermainExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.54

Paris Saint Germain

2.35

Arles

0.54

Paris Saint Germain creates 335% more chances

Season form · 253 home / 19 away

2.66

creates per match

0.37

0.72

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain

2.66

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain

0.72

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw

93%

Paris Saint Germain or Arles

85%

Draw or Arles

22%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

54%

Arles wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

90%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

68%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

41%

Arles 1+ goals

42%

Arles 2+ goals

10%

Arles 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

92%

Arles (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 253 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.66 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.35

Arles attack 0.37 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more

78%

level

15%

Arles scores more

7%

Paris Saint Germain at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Hoarau↳ L. Giuly

29'

M. Sakho↳ Nenê

49'

Nenê

50'

A. Charisteas← L. Abenzoar

56'

Nenê↳ M. Erdinç

61'

B. Soro← T. Ayasse

64'

Y. Kermorgant← D. NDiaye

72'

M. Kezman← G. Hoarau

73'

J. Maurice← L. Giuly

87'

P. Luyindula← Nenê

Paris

Arles

1

3

2

15

23

13

▼

Abenzoar

28

Meriem

27

▼

N'Diaye

6

Aït-Ben-I

17

▼

29

30

26

5

22

3

⚽

Sakho

4

Makélélé

7

A

▼

Giuly

10

⚽2A

▼

Nenê

20

Chantôme

11

A

Erdinç

9

⚽

▼

Hoarau

72'▲M. Kezman←▼G. Hoarau

73'▲J. Maurice←▼L. Giuly

87'▲P. Luyindula←▼Nenê

Paris Saint Germain substitutes

14Kezman21Maurice8Luyindula1Coupet13Traoré24Makonda6Camara

50'▲A. Charisteas←▼L. Abenzoar

61'▲B. Soro←▼T. Ayasse

64'▲Y. Kermorgant←▼D. NDiaye

Arles substitutes

9Charisteas5Soro18Kermorgant7Psaume16Merville25Johnathan8Piocelle