Paris FC W 4–0 Rodez W: Result & Stats

Paris FC W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rodez W

10/13/2018

Feminine Division 1 · Round 6Stade Robert Bobin (Bondoufle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paris FC W69%

×Draw19%

Rodez W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FC WExpected goals in this matchRodez W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.81

Paris FC W

2.21

Rodez W

0.81

Paris FC W creates 173% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 23 away

2.08

creates per match

0.52

1.09

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Paris FC W

2.08

Rodez W

0.52

allows per match

Paris FC W

1.09

Rodez W

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Rodez W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Rodez W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw

88%

Paris FC W or Rodez W

81%

Draw or Rodez W

31%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+

45%

Rodez W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals

89%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

65%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

38%

Rodez W 1+ goals

56%

Rodez W 2+ goals

19%

Rodez W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

85%

Rodez W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

Rodez W away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + Rodez W defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Rodez W attack 0.52 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Paris FC W scores more

69%

level

19%

Rodez W scores more

12%

Paris FC W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff