Paris FC W 2–1 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Paris FC W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Madrid W

G. Thiney 6'

J. Dufour 4'

C. Møller 53'

12/14/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 3Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Paris FC W46%

×Draw22%

Real Madrid W32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FC WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.56

Paris FC W

1.89

Real Madrid W

1.56

Paris FC W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

2.14

creates per match

1.56

1.57

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Paris FC W

2.14

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Paris FC W

1.57

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw

68%

Paris FC W or Real Madrid W

78%

Draw or Real Madrid W

54%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+

25%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals

85%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

56%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

29%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

79%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

46%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

59%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.14 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.89

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Paris FC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paris FC W scores more

46%

level

22%

Real Madrid W scores more

32%

Paris FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Thiney

Paris FC W · M

7.6

Match Events

4'

6'

35'

53'

57'

L. Ribadeira← M. Bourdieu

57'

M. Le Mouël← K. Korošec

57'

L. Fleury← J. Soyer

68'

Oihane Hernández← K. Robles

84'

Paula Comendador← Claudia Zornoza

86'

K. Bussy← J. Dufour

88'

Teresa Abelleira

89'

Marisa García← H. Raso

90'

T. Sissoko← C. Ould Hocine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisReal

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots13

3Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

5On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

10Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

389Total Passes539

287Accurate Passes421

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

UEFA Champions League Women: Paris FC W 2–1 Real Madrid W

Paris FC W beat Real Madrid W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Dufour (4'), G. Thiney (6'), C. Møller (53').

Real Madrid W controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.

Paris FC W vs Real Madrid W — UEFA Champions League Women 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Champions League Women: Paris FC W 2–1 Real Madrid W