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Paris FC W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lyon W
Lyon W
10/20/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 5Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Paris FC W20%
×Draw19%
Lyon W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
1.29
Lyon W
2.32

Lyon W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 85 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.08
Lyon W
3.55

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.09
Lyon W
0.49

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Lyon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
40%
Paris FC W or Lyon W
81%
Draw or Lyon W
80%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
8%
Lyon W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
72%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
37%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
14%
Lyon W 1+ goals
90%
Lyon W 2+ goals
67%
Lyon W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
25%
Lyon W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paris FC W scores more
20%
level
19%
Lyon W scores more
60%

Lyon W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. NnadozieParis FC WParis FC W · G
8.9

Match Events

19'
M. N'Dongala← C. Ould Hocine
32'
Melween Ndongala
71'
T. Chawinga← L. Horan
71'
S. Däbritz← E. Le Sommer
76'
K. Bussy← M. Garbino
76'
T. Sissoko← M. NDongala
78'
D. Marozsán← D. Egurrola
78'
A. Hegerberg← K. Diani
87'
M. Le Mouël← D. Corboz

Possession

42%Paris

Shots

6Paris

Pass accuracy

46%Paris

Statistics

ParisLyon
Overview
42%Possession58%
6Total Shots16
2Corners8
9Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots16
2On Target7
2Off Target6
2Blocked3
2Inside Box15
4Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
334Total Passes451
231Accurate Passes366
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Paris FC W vs Lyon W

Paris FC W and Lyon W drew 0-0 in Feminine Division 1 on October 20, 2024.

Lyon W controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.