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Paris FC W vs FC Fleury 91 W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
3/28/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 19Stade Charlety

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Paris FC W52%
×Draw23%
FC Fleury 91 W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
1.83
FC Fleury 91 W
1.21

Paris FC W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.08
FC Fleury 91 W
1.33

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.09
FC Fleury 91 W
1.57

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
75%
Paris FC W or FC Fleury 91 W
77%
Draw or FC Fleury 91 W
48%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
29%
FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
84%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
54%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
28%
FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
70%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
34%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
67%
FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paris FC W scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Fleury 91 W scores more
25%

Paris FC W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Paris FC W 2–1 FC Fleury 91 W

Paris FC W beat FC Fleury 91 W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Charlety in Paris.