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Paris FC W vs Barcelona W — UEFA Champions League Women 2026

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
C. Graham 49'
V. Lopez 22'
12/17/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 6Stade Jean Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Paris FC W28%
×Draw21%
Barcelona W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
1.52
Barcelona W
2.13

Barcelona W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.14
Barcelona W
2.69

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.57
Barcelona W
0.89

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
49%
Paris FC W or Barcelona W
79%
Draw or Barcelona W
72%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
13%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
78%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
45%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
20%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
88%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
63%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
35%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.14 + Barcelona W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barcelona W attack 2.69 + Paris FC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paris FC W scores more
28%
level
21%
Barcelona W scores more
51%

Barcelona W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
I. ParedesBarcelona WBarcelona W · D
8.5

Match Events

22'
V. Lopez↳ C. Pina
49'
C. Graham↳ V. Lopez
60'
S. Scott← M. Garbino
60'
M. Mendy← C. Mateo
63'
S. Schertenleib← E. Pajor
72'
F. Liaigre← M. N'Dongala
72'
S. Yerro← K. Korosec
72'
K. Nazareth← V. Lopez
87'
D. Davis← H. Sangare
87'
C. Serrajordi← L. Aleixandri
87'
L. Arufe← C. Graham
87'
C. J. Martinez← E. Brugts

Possession

27%Paris

Shots

8Paris

Pass accuracy

42%Paris

Statistics

ParisBarcelona
Overview
27%Possession73%
8Total Shots12
2Corners10
5Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target6
3Off Target2
3Blocked4
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
27%Possession73%
289Total Passes790
192Accurate Passes708
66%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls8
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Paris FC W vs Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Paris FC W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 17, 2025.

Goals: V. Lopez (22'), C. Graham (49').

Barcelona W controlled possession (73%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Jean Bouin in Paris.