Paris FC 3–1 Saint-Denis: Result & Stats

Paris FC

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saint-Denis

L. Diaby-Fadiga 90+5', 88'

Y. Koré 68'

T. Bacary 72'

12/9/2023

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paris FC64%

×Draw16%

Saint-Denis20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchSaint-Denis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.30

1.88

Paris FC

3.30

Saint-Denis

1.88

Paris FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

4.60

creates per match

2.57

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Paris FC

4.60

Saint-Denis

2.57

allows per match

Paris FC

1.20

Saint-Denis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Saint-Denis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Saint-Denis →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

80%

Paris FC or Saint-Denis

84%

Draw or Saint-Denis

36%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

45%

Saint-Denis wins by 2+

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

96%

Paris FC 2+ goals

83%

Paris FC 3+ goals

62%

Saint-Denis 1+ goals

85%

Saint-Denis 2+ goals

56%

Saint-Denis 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

76%

Saint-Denis (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Saint-Denis away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 4.60 + Saint-Denis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Saint-Denis attack 2.57 + Paris FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Paris FC scores more

64%

level

16%

Saint-Denis scores more

20%

Paris FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

I. Kebbal← A. Pembélé

58'

S. Alakouch← J. Gaudin

68'

72'

75'

78'

78'

S. Dembélé← A. Camara

88'

L. Diaby-Fadiga

90+1'

L. Grondin← J. Simouri

90+5'

L. Diaby-Fadiga

Paris

Saint-Denis

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Gilli

27'▲I. Kebbal←▼A. Pembélé

58'▲S. Alakouch←▼J. Gaudin

78'▲A. Gory←▼A. Jabbari

78'▲S. Dembélé←▼A. Camara

Paris FC substitutes

KebbalAlakouchGoryDembéléMaagaDemoncyBisse

Manager: F. Bachelier

75'▲J. Alpou←▼T. Bacary

90+1'▲L. Grondin←▼J. Simouri

Saint-Denis substitutes

AlpouGrondinAttoumaniNinonOptatBotoMazagran

Match Recap: Paris FC vs Saint-Denis

Paris FC beat Saint-Denis 3-1 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2023.

Goals: Y. Koré (68'), T. Bacary (72'), L. Diaby-Fadiga (88', 90+5').

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.

Paris FC vs Saint-Denis — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paris FC vs Saint-Denis