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Paris FC vs Lens — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lens
Lens
F. Sotoca 47', 37'
3/2/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade Sébastien-Charléty (Paris)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Paris FC40%
×Draw28%
Lens32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.25
Lens
1.07

Paris FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 35 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Lens
1.20

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Lens
1.09

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Lens+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Lens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
68%
Paris FC or Lens
72%
Draw or Lens
60%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
18%
Lens wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
71%
Paris FC 2+ goals
36%
Paris FC 3+ goals
13%
Lens 1+ goals
66%
Lens 2+ goals
29%
Lens 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
56%
Lens (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Lens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Lens defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lens attack 1.20 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paris FC scores more
40%
level
28%
Lens scores more
32%

Paris FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
F. SotocaLensLens · F
8.6

Match Events

30'
Cheick Oumar Doucouré
37'
F. Sotoca↳ S. Banza
45'
Vincent Koziello
47'
F. Sotoca↳ S. Banza
49'
Mohammed Rabiu
59'
C. Timite← L. Nomenjanahary
62'
F. Martin← J. López Baila
65'
Aleksandar Radovanović
70'
C. Jean← T. Mauricio
80'
M. Perez← S. Banza
81'
Florian Sotoca
84'
G. Gillet← C. Doucoure
85'
A. Sarr← V. Koziello

Possession

57%Paris

Shots

2Paris

Pass accuracy

50%Paris

Statistics

ParisLens
Overview
57%Possession43%
2Total Shots11
1Corners2
19Fouls17
Shots
2Total Shots11
0On Target5
0Off Target4
2Blocked2
0Inside Box8
2Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
496Total Passes367
381Accurate Passes279
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
19Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Paris FC 0 – 2 Lens

Lens beat Paris FC 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 2, 2020.

Goals: F. Sotoca (37', 47').

Paris FC controlled possession (57%) and registered 2 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Sébastien-Charléty (Paris) in Paris.