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Zimbru vs Saxan — Super Liga 2026

Zimbru
Zimbru
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saxan
Saxan
3/11/2017Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 23Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zimbru44%
×Draw25%
Saxan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbru
1.60
Saxan
1.30

Zimbru creates 23% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zimbru
1.60
Saxan
1.41

allows per match

Zimbru
1.20
Saxan
1.59

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw
69%
Zimbru or Saxan
75%
Draw or Saxan
56%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+
23%
Saxan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals
80%
Zimbru 2+ goals
47%
Zimbru 3+ goals
22%
Saxan 1+ goals
73%
Saxan 2+ goals
37%
Saxan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)
59%
Saxan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 1.60 + Saxan defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Saxan attack 1.41 + Zimbru defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zimbru scores more
44%
level
25%
Saxan scores more
31%

Zimbru at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zimbru 0 – 0 Saxan

Zimbru and Saxan drew 0-0 in Super Liga on March 11, 2017.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău).