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Paredes vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Paredes
Paredes
FT
0 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCidade Desportiva De Paredes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paredes39%
×Draw29%
Lusitânia Lourosa31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paredes
1.15
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

Paredes creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paredes
1.50
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

allows per match

Paredes
1.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80

finishing

Paredes+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paredes ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paredes or draw
69%
Paredes or Lusitânia Lourosa
71%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
61%

Winning margin

Paredes wins by 2+
16%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Paredes 1+ goals
68%
Paredes 2+ goals
32%
Paredes 3+ goals
11%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
63%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
26%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paredes (draw refunded)
55%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paredes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paredes attack 1.50 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + Paredes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paredes scores more
39%
level
29%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
31%

Paredes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paredes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Paredes 0–0 Lusitânia Lourosa

Paredes and Lusitânia Lourosa drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Cidade Desportiva De Paredes in Paredes.