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Paredes vs Fafe — Liga 3 2021

Paredes
Paredes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fafe
Fafe
8/17/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 2Municipal das Laranjeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paredes44%
×Draw29%
Fafe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paredes
1.27
Fafe
0.93

Paredes creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 72 away

creates per match

Paredes
1.11
Fafe
1.21

allows per match

Paredes
0.64
Fafe
1.44

finishing

Paredes+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paredes ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paredes or draw
73%
Paredes or Fafe
71%
Draw or Fafe
56%

Winning margin

Paredes wins by 2+
20%
Fafe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paredes 1+ goals
72%
Paredes 2+ goals
36%
Paredes 3+ goals
14%
Fafe 1+ goals
61%
Fafe 2+ goals
24%
Fafe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paredes (draw refunded)
62%
Fafe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paredes at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paredes attack 1.11 + Fafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fafe attack 1.21 + Paredes defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paredes scores more
44%
level
29%
Fafe scores more
27%

Paredes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paredes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paredes vs Fafe

Paredes and Fafe drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Municipal das Laranjeiras in Paredes.