Paredes 2–0 Canelas 2010: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Paredes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Canelas 2010

1/8/2023

Liga 3 · Round 13Cidade Desportiva De Paredes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paredes44%

×Draw31%

Canelas 201025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParedesExpected goals in this matchCanelas 2010

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.79

Paredes

1.15

Canelas 2010

0.79

Paredes creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

1.11

creates per match

0.93

0.64

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Paredes

1.11

Canelas 2010

0.93

allows per match

Paredes

0.64

Canelas 2010

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paredes+0.00on par

Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paredes ↓

Canelas 2010 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Paredes or draw

75%

Paredes or Canelas 2010

69%

Draw or Canelas 2010

56%

Winning margin

Paredes wins by 2+

19%

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paredes 1+ goals

68%

Paredes 2+ goals

32%

Paredes 3+ goals

11%

Canelas 2010 1+ goals

55%

Canelas 2010 2+ goals

19%

Canelas 2010 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paredes (draw refunded)

64%

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paredes at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paredes attack 1.11 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Paredes defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paredes scores more

44%

level

31%

Canelas 2010 scores more

25%

Paredes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paredes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff