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Pardubice W vs Horní Heršpice W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Pardubice W
Pardubice W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
5/18/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 5Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pardubice W36%
×Draw21%
Horní Heršpice W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice W
1.85
Horní Heršpice W
2.04

Horní Heršpice W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pardubice W
0.72
Horní Heršpice W
0.82

allows per match

Pardubice W
3.27
Horní Heršpice W
2.97

finishing

Pardubice W+0.00on par
Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice W ↓

Horní Heršpice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pardubice W or draw
57%
Pardubice W or Horní Heršpice W
79%
Draw or Horní Heršpice W
64%

Winning margin

Pardubice W wins by 2+
19%
Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pardubice W 1+ goals
84%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
55%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
28%
Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
87%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
60%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pardubice W (draw refunded)
45%
Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice W at home — creates 0.72, concedes 3.27 · 40 matches

Horní Heršpice W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice W attack 0.72 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Horní Heršpice W attack 0.82 + Pardubice W defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pardubice W scores more
36%
level
21%
Horní Heršpice W scores more
43%

Horní Heršpice W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice W vs Horní Heršpice W

Horní Heršpice W beat Pardubice W 4-0 in 1. Liga Women on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.