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Pardubice W vs Dukla Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Pardubice W
Pardubice W
FT
0 – 2
Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
2/28/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 9Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pardubice W46%
×Draw20%
Dukla Praha W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice W
2.23
Dukla Praha W
1.90

Pardubice W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pardubice W
0.72
Dukla Praha W
0.53

allows per match

Pardubice W
3.27
Dukla Praha W
3.73

finishing

Pardubice W+0.00on par
Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice W ↓

Dukla Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Pardubice W or draw
66%
Pardubice W or Dukla Praha W
80%
Draw or Dukla Praha W
54%

Winning margin

Pardubice W wins by 2+
27%
Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pardubice W 1+ goals
89%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
65%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
38%
Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
85%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
56%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pardubice W (draw refunded)
58%
Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice W at home — creates 0.72, concedes 3.27 · 40 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice W attack 0.72 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Pardubice W defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pardubice W scores more
46%
level
20%
Dukla Praha W scores more
34%

Pardubice W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pardubice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice W vs Dukla Praha W

Dukla Praha W beat Pardubice W 2-0 in 1. Liga Women on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Ohrazenice UMT in Pardubice.