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Dukla Praha W vs Pardubice W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pardubice W
Pardubice W
4/17/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 2Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W50%
×Draw18%
Pardubice W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha W
2.76
Pardubice W
2.17

Dukla Praha W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha W
1.40
Pardubice W
1.23

allows per match

Dukla Praha W
3.10
Pardubice W
4.13

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par
Pardubice W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Pardubice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw
69%
Dukla Praha W or Pardubice W
82%
Draw or Pardubice W
50%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
32%
Pardubice W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
94%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
76%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
51%
Pardubice W 1+ goals
89%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
64%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
62%
Pardubice W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Pardubice W away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Pardubice W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.76

Pardubice W attack 1.23 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more
50%
level
18%
Pardubice W scores more
31%

Dukla Praha W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dukla Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Dukla Praha W 1–1 Pardubice W

Dukla Praha W and Pardubice W drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Women on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.