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Pardubice vs Sokol Živanice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
3 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
5/19/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pardubice36%
×Draw27%
Sokol Živanice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.23
Sokol Živanice
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.47
Sokol Živanice
1.60

allows per match

Pardubice
0.87
Sokol Živanice
1.00

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
63%
Pardubice or Sokol Živanice
73%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
64%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
16%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
71%
Pardubice 2+ goals
35%
Pardubice 3+ goals
13%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
35%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
50%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.47 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sokol Živanice attack 1.60 + Pardubice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pardubice scores more
36%
level
27%
Sokol Živanice scores more
37%

Sokol Živanice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Pardubice 3–0 Sokol Živanice

Pardubice beat Sokol Živanice 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on May 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.