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Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech Liga 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
2/22/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 23CFIG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice40%
×Draw26%
Mlada Boleslav34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.39
Mlada Boleslav
1.25

Pardubice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 120 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.16
Mlada Boleslav
1.23

allows per match

Pardubice
1.27
Mlada Boleslav
1.62

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Mlada Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
66%
Pardubice or Mlada Boleslav
74%
Draw or Mlada Boleslav
60%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
19%
Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
75%
Pardubice 2+ goals
40%
Pardubice 3+ goals
16%
Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
71%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
36%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
54%
Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pardubice scores more
40%
level
26%
Mlada Boleslav scores more
34%

Pardubice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Pardubice 0–3 Mlada Boleslav

Mlada Boleslav beat Pardubice 3-0 in Czech Liga on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at CFIG Arena in Pardubice.